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Boxes aren't random at all.

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  • Boxes aren't random at all.

    Over the course of three years I have concluded that box spawns aren't random and the big prices will almost always come out last. Especially with SSR tickets this seems true, my experiences have been ridiculous as to get 3 SSR tickets in the final 5 items. Today I emptied the Orthaiga box and behold

  • #2
    rate for low tier item seem high and rate for high tier item seem low, kinda guessed that after the few first box spawn idk how long ago, will mostly end with having a lot of SSR tier stuff in the last few item in the box, hum

    rate can be easily twisted or something with stuff that are mostly data tho
    Last edited by niconutela; 05-16-2018, 07:20 AM.
    600k+ GS main archer (vary with an elemental set) ; idk wut k+ GS all other class (was playing them all)
    ID: 2042972836 in case u wanna ask me stuff in game or stalk me idk

    > check my Field effect post if you got time, thx ( updated with elemental attack and Collapse )

    First Fire Mobius (4/14/2016 - 4/20/2016) : Rank 1 ( Total Points ; Group A )


    • #3
      RNG is not random


      • #4
        I would like to point out that the ssr mon has a lower probability than all the other gear (1/196)vs(20/196). Kinda makes sense you get it last when it has the lowest % chance.


        • Lyrexio
          Lyrexio commented
          Editing a comment
          Ateam may have added extra "rarity factors" to the super good stuff, but who knows.

      • #5
        It's almost certainly weighted, even if you had 1 of everything in the box you would still probably get the good stuff last. Same as gem spawns, not sure why anyone expects differently.
        Des | 2132847289


        • #6
          Its 100% weighted, I cleaned out 4 boxes and he was last every time.

          I WILL SAY THOUGH, I got the light SUO monster on my first pull of the box, and I didn't even farm him I think it was like a 10x spawn...
          "After an eternity away from you all, Jack of Blades is back."

          The Phoenix Shall Rise From The Ashes.

          Our Greatest Glory Is Not In Never Failing,
          But In Rising Every Time We Fail


          • #7
            I thought this was common knowledge tbh. The chances for the main prize is 100% skewed against the player's favor. Heck, the chances for all prizes in boxes are usually different. This could be seen with the Oratoria box, Fairy Tail Box, Yeti Box, Asahime Box, etc.

            The easiest for me to see are boxes that contain many, many augment materials that you're often meant to clear.
            I'm sure many people have experienced this; you pull nearly all of the lowest augment materials before you're left with an excessive amount of the SSR augment materials, even though the numbers aren't much lower. Of course, 4/5 times all of the higher tickets and stuff are also still in there.

            Insert screencap of 30 spawn where 29 are rainbows. That's right. 29 SSR augment materials.


            Of course, though, there are outliars where some people pull the main prize or best prizes in relatively few pulls. But that's RNG for you. Except you know, that RNG is actually 1/3823 or some ridiculous number when there's only 500 prizes.

            Look at my overpowered passas up here lmao. 10/10 broken monster set.

            Level: 190
            Main Class: Archer
            Normal Gear Score: ~ 740k
            Power Level: Over 9000
            Kills: Negative Twenty-Four

            - Has a never-ending lust for sweets.
            - Resistance only makes me stronger.
            - Trips over nothing.


            • #8

              As much as I hate it, I have faith in the randomness.


              • UL Hitachi
                UL Hitachi commented
                Editing a comment
                Yeah, hooray to randomness and congrats

            • #9
              I believe that the box spawns are random. Solely because of the crimson sakura box spawn months ago. The more stuff you pull from the box increases the chances. Ive pulled two scrolls from.that box without even clearing it out to no items left. Its just RNG after all.


              • Vegecat
                Vegecat commented
                Editing a comment
                Getting the Erzas was very random. From everything I've seen, she was weighted far more heavily than top prizes usually are.

                Saying otherwise is kinda like, if you got good SSR rates from a (hypothetical) double Divine Grace spawn (sometimes getting 10 Rs, but sometimes getting 9 SSRs), then saying rates must be the same for a 2% SSR spawn as well. Nope, it seems that the rates are just different per spawn.